Polestar, Rivian report concludes automotive trade monitoring to overshoot IPCC emissions goal by 75%

Polestar and Rivia have collaborated on a ‘Pathway Report’ which concludes that the automotive trade is ready to overshoot the IPCC’s 1.5-degree pathway by at the least 75% by 2050. The report, which makes use of current, open-source information to mannequin the present trajectory for emissions stemming from the automobile trade, was carried out by international administration consulting agency Kearney.

… the automotive trade has taken steps over the previous decade to decarbonize. To this point, the first focus for the trade has rightly been on electrification of the fleet, concentrating on the numerous portion (60 to 65 p.c for inside combustion engine (ICE) autos) of emissions that come from the tailpipe.

The problem: when modeling a hypothetical well-to-wheel situation of aggressive battery electrical automobile (BEV) adoption, powered by hypothetical full swap to fossil-free energy sources in parallel, there’s nonetheless a GHG emission overshoot, except upstream scope 3 (provide chain emissions) are concurrently tackled.

—Pathway Report

Passenger autos presently account for 15% of all greenhouse fuel (GHG) emissions globally. The IPCC has said that every one GHG emissions must be decreased by 43% by 2030. The report makes clear that the automotive trade is way off observe, and, may have spent its full CO₂e finances already by 2035 with out pressing motion.

The report means that the automobile trade nonetheless has an opportunity to get on observe. By redirecting sources and focus, the trade can quickly construct the momentum required to stay in keeping with the Paris Settlement. The Pathway Report focuses on the present decade and descriptions rapid, clear actions that automobile producers can take between now and 2030, together with some that may be triggered instantly.

The info presents a pathway based mostly round three key levers. Lever 1 seems to be on the velocity at which fossil fuel-powered vehicles must be changed by electrical vehicles however factors out that this alone won’t be sufficient. Much more work might be required for levers 2 and three:

Pulling only one or two levers in isolation might be inadequate and solely cut back the overshoot. Collective motion from automakers is required on all three levers, in parallel, at a world stage, the report says.

• First, the trade should speed up the transition to electrical autos by investing in manufacturing capabilities, in addition to implementing a agency finish date for fossil gasoline automobile gross sales globally.

• Second, construct out renewable vitality provide to international grids that allow EVs to succeed in their full potential by inexperienced charging.

• Third, decarbonize the manufacturing provide chains for these autos by switching to low carbon supplies, and investing in renewable vitality options for provide chains.

Kearney’s report has additionally been shared with a number of of the world’s main automobile makers, along with an invite to a roundtable held on the finish of January to debate areas of collective motion. The intention is to discover a path in the direction of unprecedented, related and collective local weather motion for the automobile trade.